German Furniture Market: Early Demand Signals

Germany is Europe’s largest furniture market, making developments in the country an important signal for the broader European sector. After the strong demand surge during the pandemic period, the market has entered a weaker phase as consumer spending and housing activity slowed. This analysis reviews several indicators related to German furniture demand, including retail turnover, online search behaviour, housing market activity and consumer confidence, to provide a broader perspective on how the market has evolved and where it may be heading.

Furniture retail turnover

German furniture retail turnover has weakened in recent years following the demand surge during the pandemic period. Sales volumes increased strongly in 2020 and early 2021 as households spent more on home improvement and furnishings, but this was followed by a clear correction as inflation, higher interest rates and weaker consumer spending reduced demand for durable goods.

Recent data suggest that the decline has moderated but has not yet reversed. Furniture retail turnover in Germany fell –1.6% year-on-year over the last 12 months and –1.4% over the last six months, indicating that the market remains slightly below the levels seen in previous years, with demand stabilising but still subdued.

Furniture search demand improves

Online search behaviour suggests that consumer interest in furniture products in Germany has strengthened again in recent years. After declining between 2021 and 2023, the product search index began to recover and has gradually moved upward through 2024 and 2025. Recent values are among the highest in the series, indicating that consumers are increasingly searching for furniture-related products again after a period of weaker interest. This improvement suggests that early-stage demand signals for furniture may be recovering even though realised retail sales remain subdued.

At the same time, searches for furniture retailers have remained comparatively weaker, creating a divergence between product and retailer search trends. This may indicate that consumers increasingly start their purchase journey with product searches rather than retailer brands.

Early signs of recovery in German housing

Housing activity is closely linked to furniture demand, as home purchases, relocations and new construction typically trigger furniture spending. Changes in the housing cycle therefore often translate into shifts in furniture market activity.

After a sharp downturn between 2022 and 2024, the German housing cycle is showing early signs of recovery. Both mortgage lending and residential building permits declined significantly during the period of rising interest rates, with permits falling particularly strongly. More recently, however, mortgage volumes have begun to increase again and building permits appear to have stabilised after the steep decline, suggesting that the housing market may be gradually bottoming out.

German consumer confidence remains subdued

Consumer sentiment plays an important role in furniture demand, as furniture purchases are typically discretionary and linked to households’ willingness to make larger expenditures. Changes in consumer confidence therefore often translate into shifts in spending on durable goods.

In Germany, consumer confidence dropped sharply during the inflation shock of 2022, reaching the lowest levels in the series. Since then sentiment has recovered somewhat, but the indicator has remained consistently negative over the past two years. While the worst of the decline appears to be over, confidence remains below pre-2020 levels, suggesting that households are still relatively cautious in their spending outlook.

Conclusion

Taken together, the indicators suggest that the German furniture market may be approaching the end of its recent downturn, but a clear recovery has not yet emerged. Retail turnover remains slightly below recent years, indicating that realised demand is still weak even though the rate of decline has moderated.

At the same time, several forward-looking signals are becoming more positive. Furniture product searches have strengthened again and housing indicators show early signs of stabilisation after a sharp contraction. However, the continued weakness in consumer confidence suggests that households remain cautious about discretionary spending. Overall, the data point to a market that is stabilising with tentative early demand signals, but where a sustained recovery will likely depend on further improvement in housing activity and consumer sentiment.

Sources:
Eurostat – Consumers confidence indicator and survey results
European Central Bank (ECB) – MIR dataset
Eurostat – Short-term business statistics (STS)
Google Trends – search interest over time

Methodology & limitations:
The indicators combine macroeconomic sentiment, housing market activity, and digital demand signals associated with durable household consumption. Consumer confidence is measured using the Eurostat harmonised consumer confidence indicator (balance statistic). Housing conditions are approximated using new mortgage lending for house purchase (ECB MIR statistics) and residential construction permits (Eurostat STS), both expressed as indices with 2019 = 100 to improve time-series comparability.

Google Trends indicators provide a high-frequency proxy for furniture-related consumer research activity. Weekly search data are aggregated to monthly frequency and combined into weighted baskets of furniture products and major retailers. All search series are expressed as normalised indices (2018 = 100 ), meaning they capture relative changes in search interest rather than absolute demand. As a result, the indicators should be interpreted as directional signals rather than direct measures of furniture sales.